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The Science of Global Warming

Video | Press

Global Warming Information

 

1)    Global Cooling

-       Coastal stations in Greenland are experiencing a cooling trend, and average summer air temperatures at the summit of the Greenland Ice Sheet, have decreased at the rate of 4° F per decade since measurements began in 1987. Petr Chylek et al., "Global Warming and the Greenland Ice Sheet," Climatic Change , Vol. 63, Nos. 1-2, March 2004, pages 201-221.

-       Weather processes make the earth habitable cool.  Precipitation decreases the amount of water vapor (the predominant greenhouse gas), thereby cooling the earth.  The climate models do not accurately predict this pattern, so they do not take into account the earth’s natural cooling cycle.  http://www.nypost.com/seven/02262007/postopinion/opedcolumnists/not_that_simple_opedcolumnists_roy_w__spencer.htm

-       UN Scientists confirm that 2008 will be cooler than last year – but they “forecast” that eventually we will warm up. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7329799.stm

-       Among the lowest stratospheric temperatures in 50 years on record in the Arctic for 2007-08 winter.  Only “slightly below average” temperatures for lower atmosphere in the Arctic.  http://www.wmo.int/pages/publications/world_climate_news/documents/wcn_33_en.pdf p. 12

-       Global cooling in the past year from 4 sources.  http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/02/19/january-2008-4-sources-say-globally-cooler-in-the-past-12-months/

 

2)    CO2 is not as damaging as alleged.

-       Contrary to the IPCC predictions, global temperature has not risen appreciably in the last 20 years. Most surface temperature data free from the influence of surrounding buildings and roads show no warming. Data from satellites support this. Sea level has been rising since the end of the last ice age, long before industrialization, but historical records show no acceleration in sea level rise in the twentieth century. Increases in carbon dioxide appear to pose no immediate danger to the planet. The gas is not a pollutant. http://bcpg.geoscienceworld.org/cgi/content/abstract/50/2/297

-       Positive effects of CO2 - http://www.co2science.org/articles/V10/N10/EDIT.php

-       CO2 only has a 7-10 year half-time, not a 300 year “lifetime” as computer models use to calculate climate change (Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide – Robinson, et al. 2007, p. 6)

-       Tree population increase in Sweden from 1973-2005 http://www.emg.umu.se/publiceringar/tree-line-population-monitoring-of-pinus-sylvestris-in-the-swedish-scandes-1973-2005-implications.html

-       Methane emissions are 20 times more effective at trapping heat.  http://www.epa.gov/methane/

-       Alaska is cooler than the two previous summers.  http://www.adn.com/anchorage/story/464849.html

 

3)    Where does CO2 come from? (not only energy and manufacturing, but “natural” sources)

-       Amounts of Carbon Dioxide in the Earth (all in constant fluctuation):

  • Atmosphere – 780 Gt C
  • Surface ocean – 1,000 Gt C
  • Soils and plants – 2,000 Gt C
  • deep oceans – 38,000 Gt C
  • Total Human Industrial CO2 production: approx. 8 gigatons (Gt C) per year
  • Humans exhale approx. 0.6 Gt C per year
    • (Source - Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide – Robinson, et al. 2007, p. 6)

-       Geothermal processes: volcanic activity, hotsprings, geysers, plate movement

-       Fermentation of sugar in wine, beer and grain alcohol

-       Production of biofuels - http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/1151861

-       Breakdown of CO2 emissions and sinks.  http://epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/downloads/08_ES.pdf

 

4)    Cause-and-effect findings that dispute “man-made” causation, and actual changes in climate

-       National Academy of Sciences reported in 2001 that “Because of the large and still uncertain level of natural variability inherent in the climate record and the uncertainties in the time histories of the various forcing agents…a causal linkage between the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the observed climate changes during the 20th century cannot be unequivocally established.”  Committee on the Science of Climate Change, National Research Council, Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions, http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=10139&page=17

-               The extent to which fossil fuel emissions have contributed to the rise in global atmospheric air temperatures since about the mid-1800s is still debatable, since much of the warming occurred before significant increases in atmospheric trace gas concentrations, and because there was a dramatic downward trend in air temperatures between the early 1960s and the mid-1970s — after significant increases in atmospheric CO2.  http://www.ncpa.org/pub/st/st285/st285d.html.

-               Russian coastal stations report that the maximum average air temperature for the 20th century was in 1938, before humans released significant greenhouse gas emissions and when it was nearly 0.4° F warmer than the average air temperature for 2000.  Igor V. Polyakov et al., "Observationally Based Assessment of Polar Amplification of Global Warming," Geophysical Research Letters , Vol. 29, No. 18, September 2002, 10.1029/2001GL011111.

-               It is critical to note that air temperature is only one factor that dictates sea ice coverage and thickness. Another factor in the formation of sea ice is the frequency and intensity of wind. When the Arctic is relatively calm, it is easier for sea ice to form. During stormy periods, churning water makes sea ice formation more difficult. This is one of the main reasons for a distinct lack of correlation between computer projections and the observed response of the Arctic region. A study by Canada 's Department of Fisheries and Oceans examining the relationship between air temperature and sea ice coverage concluded "global warming appears to play a minor role in changes to Arctic sea ice."  Indeed, the Canadian study determined that changing wind patterns are the primary cause of changing sea ice distributions.  Greg Holloway, "Is Arctic Sea Ice Rapidly Vanishing? Fisheries and Oceans Canada-Pacific Region."

-               CO2 levels lag behind a rise in temperature between 400 and 1000 years.  There is a connection between CO2 and temperature, but an increase in CO2 concentrations are caused by an increase in temperature, not the other way around.  http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/283/5408/1712 (also in Unstoppable p. 109)

-               CO2 is not the forcing that initially drives the climatic system during deglaciation.  http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/299/5613/1728 (also in Unstoppable, p. 109)

-               Temperatures correlate with the sun’s activity, not the increase in hydrocarbon emissions (Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide – Robinson, et al. 2007, Fig. 3)

-       Hydrocarbon use has increased 6-fold from 1940 to 2007, but this has not led to any unusually increase in sea levels or glacial melting: decades before the increased use of hydrocarbons, some glaciers began receding and sea levels began to rise minimally, and the rates stay steady despite a exponential increase in carbon emissions (Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide – Robinson, et al. 2007, Figs. 11 and 12)

-       Variations in solar wind and its magnetic field effect on cosmic rays and thus on cloud coverage is a large factor that is ignored by the IPCC.  – For more info: Svenmark, H. 2007.  Cosmoclimatology: a new theory emerges.  Astronomy & Geophysics 48: 1.18-1.24. http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/117980230/abstract;

Scafetta & West, 2007. Phenomenological reconstruction of the solar signature in the Northern Hemisphere surface temperature records since 1600. http://www.fel.duke.edu/~scafetta/pdf/2006GL027142.pdf

Usoskin & Kovaltsov. 2007. Cosmic rays and climate of the Earth: possible connections.  http://cc.oulu.fi/~usoskin/personal/CRAS2A_2712.pdf

-       NASA Chief Administrator Michael Griffin stated that he did not believe that it was within the power of humans to control global warming. http://www.ewire.com/display.cfm/Wire_ID/3967

 

5)    Latest and Greatest – what’s most recent in terms of scientific findings

-       Cloud Cover Not understood by Climate Models (p. 13) – therefore raising concerns of reliability of these models.  Also, most warming in the past century is due to natural causes (p. 11) http://www.sepp.org/publications/NIPCC_final.pdf

-       Effect of CO2 on trees: "the notion that CO2 enrichment expands the volume of soil effectively explored by roots and fungi, and that foraging in a given volume of soil also seems to intensify, provides compelling evidence to indicate that CO2 enrichment has the potential to stimulate productivity (and carbon sequestration) in N-limited ecosystems more than previously expected." Pritchard, S.G., Strand, A.E., McCormack, M.L., Davis, M.A. and Oren, R. 2008. Mycorrhizal and rhizomorph dynamics in a loblolly pine forest during 5 years of free-air-CO2-enrichment. Global Change Biology 14: 1-13. (http://www.co2science.org/articles/V11/N28/EDIT.php)

-       World Meteorological Organization: global warming cannot scientifically be connected with increased tropical cyclone activity.  http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/IWTC_Statement.pdf

-       http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/IWTC_Summary.pdf

-       John R. Christy, Professor and Director of the Atmospheric Science Department at the University of Alabama at Huntsville has argued that there is a discrepancy between the atmospheric temperatures and surface temperatures, showing a cooler atmosphere and warmer surface – which significantly impairs the alarmist argument of anthropogenic greenhouse warming (in which the heat is trapped by a hot atmosphere and radiated down to the surface).  http://energycommerce.house.gov/cmte_mtgs/110-eaq-hrg.030707.Christy-Testimony.pdf

-       CO2 is a natural and benign gas - http://members.iinet.net.au/~glrmc/2007%2005-03%20AusIMM%20corrected.pdf

  • Relationship between temperature increase and CO2 levels is logarithmic, meaning that each extra unit of CO2 creates less warming
  • 75% of the warming to occur if CO2 is doubled should have already occurred under the logarithmic calculations
  • Increase in temperature usually precedes CO2 level rises
  • CO2 doesn’t have any clear relation to actual warming – many glaciers have accelerated when CO2 levels were much higher

-       Methane emissions have increased by 148% since pre-industrial times, while CO2 emissions have increased 36%.  Methane is also over 20 times more efficient at heat-trapping.  http://epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/downloads/08_ES.pdf p. 2-3

Important News on the Science of Global Warming

Global Warming Stopped 16 Years Ago, According to UK Government, UK Daily Mail, 10-13-12

European Study Blasts "Man-Made Global Warming" - Critical New Findings

Hal Lewis Resignation Letter, 10-13-2010

Climategate Report 9-21-10

Montford Report 9-21-10

Greenpeace Co-founder Slams DiCaprio’s New Global Warming Film


Video

 

Lord Monckton Interview

Monckton: Apocalypse? No! Summary

 

Monckton: Apocalypse? No! #1

 

Monckton: Apocalypse? No! #3

 

Dr. John Christy Presentation on Climate Change

 

Dr. John Christy on Science of Global Warming

 

Lord Monckton on Global Warming Video